Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim: Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.
Location: China
Methods: Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥ 30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.
Results: Our results suggest that 36.30%-51.85..., ,