Climate change risk to giant panda populations: insights from changes in both habitat area and bioclimatic velocity

Climate change affects biodiversity through multidimensional impacts, influencing not only shifts in habitat range but also changes in habitat quality. In this context, habitat area and bioclimatic velocity have become critical metrics for assessing species-specific vulnerabilities to climate change. Here, we assessed the extinction risk and exposure risk of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) based on habitat area and bioclimatic velocity, respectively, and examined the differences between these two risks to inform climate-adaptive conservation strategies. Our findings indicate that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, degraded giant panda habitats are projected to total 13,846.1 km2, with the Qinling (QL), Liangshan (LS), and Daxiangling (DXL) populations experiencing substantial habitat loss of 3,790.4 km2, 2,722.8 km2, and 1,135.4 km2, respectively. Bioclimatic velocities across different populations range from -0.468 to 0.309 km yr-1, with higher velocities observed in southeastern Minshan (MS) and Qionglaishan (QLS), and Liangshan (LS) regions, suggesting potential declines in habitat suitability and substantial challenges to population survival. Our results also reveal that while most populations exhibit consistent risk patterns when assessed by both habitat area change and bioclimatic velocity, notable discrepancies still remain. Populations with high extinction risk generally also face high exposure risks; however, some populations with low extinction risk may still encounter substantial exposure risks (e.g., DXL_A and MS_K). These findings highlight the limitations of relying on single-dimensional assessments of species’ vulnerability to climate change, as evidenced by the variability in risk assessment outcomes. Therefore, integrating changes in both habitat area and bioclimatic velocity provides a more comprehensive understanding of species’ vulnerability, reveal local adaptation mechanisms, and offers a robust scientific basis for formulating targeted climate-resilient conservation strategies.