Posterior distribution median and 95% prediction intervals determined by ABC fitting of Approximate Bayesian Computation models for Hansen’s Disease to data from the 5 regions of Brazil.

Version 4 consisted of fitting the regional best-fit model to each region’s observed data separately; all other versions used a hierarchical structure in which at least some parameters were shared across regions, and fitting was done simultaneously across all 5 regions. Relative weight refers to the Bayes Factor of each version when compared to the version with the worst fit (Version 3).aVersion of the hierarchical structure sharing parameters across 5 regions of Brazil: 1) all parameters shared; 2) transmission parameters shared; 3) transition parameters shared; 4) no parameters sharedPosterior distribution median and 95% prediction intervals determined by ABC fitting of Approximate Bayesian Computation models for Hansen’s Disease to data from the 5 regions of Brazil.