Seasonal dynamics of spatial distribution and overlap between Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) in the Barents Sea

The trophic link between cod (Gadus sp.) and capelin (Mallotus sp.) is important in many panarctic ecosystems. Since the early 2000s, the Northeast Arctic cod stock (G. morhua) in the Barents Sea has increased greatly, and the sea has been exceptionally warm. Such changes have potentially large effects on species distributions and overlap, which in turn could affect the strength of species interactions. Due to its high latitude location, the Barents Sea has strong seasonal variation in physical conditions and interactions. To study drivers of variation in cod-capelin overlap, we use data from two annual surveys run in winter and in autumn of 2004-2015. We first model winter and autumn spatial distributions of mature and immature cod and capelin. We then calculate overlap from model predictions on a grid with similar spatial resolution as the survey data. Our approach allowed us to interpret changes in overlap as species-specific effects of stock size and temperature, while accounting fo...