Machine learning and deep learning approaches for enhanced prediction of hERG blockade: a comprehensive QSAR modeling study

Cardiotoxicity is a major cause of drug withdrawal. The hERG channel, regulating ion flow, is pivotal for heart and nervous system function. Its blockade is a concern in drug development. Predicting hERG blockade is essential for identifying cardiac safety issues. Various QSAR models exist, but their performance varies. Ongoing improvements show promise, necessitating continued efforts to enhance accuracy using emerging deep learning algorithms in predicting potential hERG blockade. Using a large training dataset, six individual QSAR models were developed. Additionally, three ensemble models were constructed. All models were evaluated using 10-fold cross-validations and two external datasets. The 10-fold cross-validations resulted in Mathews correlation coefficient (MCC) values from 0.682 to 0.730, surpassing the best-reported model on the same dataset (0.689). External validations yielded MCC values from 0.520 to 0.715 for the first dataset, exceeding those of previously reported models (0 – 0.599). For the second dataset, MCC values fell between 0.025 and 0.215, aligning with those of reported models (0.112 – 0.220). The developed models can assist the pharmaceutical industry and regulatory agencies in predicting hERG blockage activity, thereby enhancing safety assessments and reducing the risk of adverse cardiac events associated with new drug candidates.