Percentage of simulations producing indirect estimates of exceeding a given threshold corresponding to the simulation settings where .

Four different thresholds were considered for each simulation setting: 1.40, 1.52, 1.75 and 2.05. These thresholds were chosen to represent an approximate increase of 20%, 30%, 50% and 75% in the value of . Reported percentages quantify the degree to which Bucher's method over-estimates. (Note: The true average event rate in group A was either 10% or 30%).