Supplementary Data for: Tracking climate adaptation below the national scale: evidence from Egypt's water, coastal, and urban sectors, 2010–2025 (reproducibility archive)

Abstract Whether national adaptation records can support inference below the national scale remains an important but rarely tested problem. We assemble a 2010–2025 panel for Egypt's seven economic regions, code documented adaptation progress in the water, coastal, and urban sectors using an evidence-tiered five-criterion 0–4 protocol, and estimate a Bayesian hierarchical ordered-logit model with partially pooled regional effects. National headline ratings show meaningful but incomplete and sectorally sequenced progress: water 2→2→3, coastal 1→2→3, and urban 1→2→2 across three policy periods. Under the current evidence register, six of 54 scored region–period–sector assessments contain region-specific Tier-1 evidence and only two differ numerically from their national baseline. The regional-effect scale is shifted toward smaller values (posterior mean σᵤ = 0.455; 94% equal-tailed interval 0.019–1.326), all seven regional-effect intervals include zero, and Pr(σᵤ > 0.5) remains 0.36. Thus moderate persistent heterogeneity cannot be excluded, but the documentary record does not resolve it. Three external experts independently re-coded the evidence; expert-consensus criterion-level weighted κ was 0.73, and the central interpretation remained stable across aggregation, prior, covariate, interaction, observation-unit, measurement-error, and leave-one-region-out sensitivities. Equity never exceeds 2 and is the lowest or tied for the lowest criterion in eight of nine sector-period assessments. The principal finding is therefore a reporting-resolution gap rather than regional homogeneity. Routine geographic and distributional identifiers would make Egypt's adaptation reporting more informative, and the framework may be useful in other documentary settings where subnational evidence is sparse.