Strong context-dependence in the relative importance of climate and habitat on macro-moth community changes in Finland

Aim: Evaluating the relative impacts of land use and climate change on community change is challenging, and their impact may be context-dependent. Here, we use long-term moth community data to evaluate the relative impacts of changing habitats vs. changing climates on community composition and diversity of moths in different landscape settings and for moth species associated with different traits.
Location:  Finland, Northern Europe.
Time period: 1998-2020
Major taxa studied: Nocturnal macro-moths
Methods: We used Hierarchical Modelling of Species Communities to pinpoint moth species’ responses to climate and habitat composition in 109 sites across Finland. To characterise context-dependence, we extended this framework with conditional variance partitioning analysis. We used the model predictions to evaluate the relative effect of drivers on community diversity across Finland.
Results: The landscape context (i.e. the habitat composition around the site and its change..., Data: See manuscript for details.

Moth occurrences: We used occurrence and abundance observations from the Finnish moth monitoring scheme (Nocturna). This scheme has been running across Finland since 1993 (Leinonen et al., 2016). Our data comprises 109 sites sampled every night from early spring to late autumn using ‘Jalas’ light traps (160 W mixed light or 125 W mercury (Hg) vapour bulbs) (Jalas, 1960). We focused our study on the main flight period of moths, as lasting from 1 April to 15 October. Our analyses were focused on years 1998-2020, which is the period for which both habitat and climate data were available. Since species of very low incidence will contribute little information on the drivers of distributions, we considered only macro-moth species with a prevalence higher than 10%. This resulted in a total of 56 966 observations (26.8% of all observations) and a total abundance of about 3.5 million of individuals (68% of the total abundance) for 1196 trap-years across 78..., , # Strong context-dependence in the relative importance of climate and habitat on macro-moth community changes in Finland

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.0k6djhb5r](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.0k6djhb5r)

The former Data folder has been separated into: Data_prep.7z (raw and transformed, subfiles 1 and 2) and Data_Model.7z (Model results and prediction results, subfiles 3 and 4). To smoothly run the script, the contents of these two (subfiles 1, 2, 3, and 4) need to be combined in a 'Data' folder.

Code.7z: software files are now published and publicly available on Zenodo: [https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16811166](https://h52wvrds.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.5281%2Fzenodo.16811166/1/01010198bc3d28ed-f9d5ea51-e846-45fb-999e-9d3c41fc7d80-000000/TCkgdQ4vMeQ8SOaP6W5mkdhJWD0=440)

Data_prep.7z: supplemental information is now published and publicly available on Zenodo: [https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16811170](https://h52wvrds.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fdo...,