Graduation from Social Protection: Removed, Ready or Rotated?

Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP), currently in its fifth phase, is billed as a graduation programme, yet how exit decisions play out in practice remains unclear. This Research Briefing explores PSNP effectiveness by evaluating whether households leaving, or “graduating”, are (1) Better off than when they first entered; (2) Better off than those remaining; and (3) Sufficiently well-off to no longer need support. Using primary data from a bespoke panel survey, we find that many households are removed prematurely yet, on average, hold higher levels of assets, livestock and regular employment than those still enrolled. Nevertheless, exited households remain very poor and vulnerable, with low incomes, high poverty rates, and negligible consumption gains. While further research is required, these findings lend weight to a rotation hypothesis: budget constraints and high local poverty rates pressure local‑level officials to cycle equally needy households off the programme so that others, equally poor, can access it.