Decadal Wildfire Dynamics in the Palampur Forest Division, Kangra, Himachal Pradesh (2015–2026)

Wildfires represent a significant and recurrent ecological disturbance across the mid elevation Himalayan forest zone of Himachal Pradesh, India. This study presents a decadal assessment of wildfire dynamics in the Palampur Forest Division, Kangra district, for the period 2015–2026, using multi-source remote sensing datasets processed entirely within Google Earth Engine (GEE). The objectives were to (i) map cumulative fire frequency using MODIS Terra Active Fire (MOD14A1) data, (ii) quantify burn extent and severity for the major 2024 fire event using Sentinel-2 dNBR analysis, (iii) examine inter-annual climate variability as a potential driver using ERA5-Land reanalysis data, and (iv) produce a multi-criteria fire risk zone map integrating terrain, land cover, and historical fire occurrence. Results indicate that 84,712 hectares burned during the April–June 2024 fire season, of which 59.5% was classified as moderate to high severity. The cumulative fire frequency map identified persistent hotspots near Gopalpur, Nagri, and Paraur, with individual pixels recording up to four fire-detection days over ten years. Contrary to expectation, ERA5 climate analysis revealed that 2024 was not the hottest or driest pre-fire season in the study period — 2022 recorded the highest mean temperature (10.72°C) and lowest precipitation (249 mm) — suggesting that the 2024 event was primarily driven by human ignition rather than climate anomaly. The fire risk zone map classified 80.3% of the study area as medium or higher risk, with 6,703 ha in the high-to-very-high category. These findings are discussed in the context of the Neugal Khad watershed, into which a significant proportion of burned catchment drains, with implications for post-fire runoff enhancement, erosion acceleration, and stream water quality.