Regional self-reliance model of the New England food system

What is it?The “Regional self-reliance model of the New England food system” explores future scenarios of regional food self-reliance. In this model, self-reliance is defined as the ratio of production to consumption and can be expressed for individual commodities, food groups, or the overall diet. The model allows a user to define assumptions about diet composition and target self-reliance for different groups of foods. The model estimates the regional self-reliance across seven food groups (grains, vegetables, fruits, dairy, protein-rich foods, fats and oils, and sweeteners) and for the overall diet. In addition, the model calculates land requirements for producing the target amounts of food from New England agriculture. These estimates are presented beside data on current land use to place the results in context.Why was it generated?The model was generated as part of the New England Feeding New England (NEFNE) project. The central question of NEFNE was, "What would it take for 30% of the food consumed in New England to be regionally produced by 2030?" The model addresses the agricultural production capacity of the region, while accounting for the contribution of capture fisheries and aquaculture to food production. The purpose of the model is to estimate the production capacity of the region’s land resources to evaluate the land requirements of increasing regional self-reliance in food.How was it generated?A team of researchers collaborated to construct the model. The model builds on prior work on regional self-reliance, the human carrying capacity of agricultural resources, and analysis of livestock feed requirements. As described below, the model estimates the land requirements of supplying a given level of self-reliance, accounting for food needs, food losses and waste, livestock feed requirements, crop yields, and land availability.Starting from the food consumption end of the food system, the model takes input data on food intake (in servings person-1 day-1) by food group (e.g., grains) and distributes consumption across primary food commodities from that food group (e.g., corn meal, wheat flour) in the Loss-Adjusted Food Supply. Intake for each primary food commodity is then converted into the equivalent quantity of agricultural commodity (in pounds year-1) needed to supply the region with a sufficient amount of that commodity to meet the target level of self-reliance, at a given projected population size. This conversion accounts for the serving size of the commodity (in grams), losses at different stages of the food system, and processing conversions. For animal products, a further step is taken to convert the quantity of food consumed into equivalent quantities of crop biomass required to feed the requisite livestock. Land requirements for each food are determined by dividing the agricultural commodity (for plant foods) or crop biomass requirements (for animal products) by regional average yields for the appropriate crop(s).Input data were collected from an array of secondary data sources, including, the Loss-Adjusted Food Supply, the Census of Agriculture, the New England Agricultural Bulletin, Major Land Uses, the Atlantic Coastal Cooperative Statistics Program Data Warehouse, and the NOAA Fisheries Landings data portal. Additional sources used to develop the model are cited in the workbook and reference information is provided in each worksheet. The unique contribution of the model is to organize the data in a form that permits exploration of alternative scenarios of diet, target self-reliance, and land availability for the New England region.

何为“新英格兰食物系统区域自给自足模型”？本模型旨在探讨区域食物自给自足的未来情景。在此模型中，自给自足被定义为生产与消费之比，并可针对个别商品、食物类别或整体饮食进行表达。该模型允许用户定义关于饮食构成的假设，并针对不同食物类别设定目标自给自足率。模型估计了七个食物类别（谷物、蔬菜、水果、乳制品、富含蛋白质的食物、油脂和甜味剂）以及整体饮食的区域自给自足水平。此外，模型还计算了从新英格兰农业生产目标食物数量所需的土地面积。这些估计值与当前土地利用数据并列呈现，以使结果更具情境性。
为何生成此模型？该模型作为新英格兰喂养新英格兰（NEFNE）项目的一部分而被生成。NEFNE的核心问题为：“到2030年，新英格兰地区消费的30%食物若要实现区域生产，需要做何努力？”模型旨在解决该地区的农业生产能力，同时考虑到捕捞渔业和水产养殖对食物生产的贡献。该模型旨在估算该地区土地资源的生产能力，以评估提高区域食物自给自足率所需的土地需求。
模型是如何生成的？一支研究团队协作构建了该模型。该模型基于区域自给自足、农业资源的人类承载能力和家畜饲料需求分析的前期工作。如以下所述，该模型估算达到既定自给自足水平所需的土地需求，同时考虑食物需求、食物损失与浪费、家畜饲料需求、作物产量和土地可用性。从食物系统的食物消费端开始，模型接收关于食物摄入量（每人每天所摄入的份量）的数据，并根据损失调整后的食物供应，将消费分配到初级食物商品（例如，玉米粉、小麦粉）中。然后，将每种初级食物商品的摄入量转换为等效的农业商品量（每年磅数），以满足该地区足够的该商品供应，以达到既定的自给自足水平，并考虑预测的人口规模。这种转换考虑到了商品的份量（克）、食物系统不同阶段的损失以及加工转换。对于动物产品，还采取进一步步骤将消费的食物量转换为所需的作物生物量量，以喂养相应的家畜。每种食物的土地需求是通过将农业商品量（植物食品）或作物生物量需求量除以该地区相应作物（s）的平均产量来确定的。输入数据来自包括损失调整后的食物供应、农业普查、新英格兰农业公报、主要土地利用、大西洋沿海合作统计项目数据仓库以及NOAA渔业登陆数据门户在内的多种二级数据来源。模型开发过程中使用的其他来源已在工作簿中列出，且每个工作表中都提供了参考信息。该模型独特的贡献在于，将数据组织成一种形式，使得可以探索新英格兰地区饮食、目标自给自足和土地可用性的不同情景。