Historical and Forecast Land use Data for Ibadan, Nigeria 1984 - 2040

The SLEUTH model was implemented for Ibadan Nigeria, a city in West Africa with a mostly unregulated growth trajectory. The input physiographic and historical data for SLEUTH was compiled at spatial resolutions ranging between 15m – 90m. The temporal resolution of inputs was based on 35 years of historical data spanning the years 1984 to 2020. The urban (built-up commercial, residential, and industrial) land use increased almost four-fold from 3.0% of the total area in 1984 to 11.2% by 2020. The Forest extent was halved from 73.1% to 36.7% while agriculture and savanna extents have expanded over time.  Predictors of growth and the effect of tiling and spatiotemporal resolution on calibration and future growth forecasts with SLEUTH were determined. Transport and suburban edge spread were found to be the best predictors of growth. Model calibration metrics were found to generally improve with finer spatial resolution. Uncertainty reduced as the time interval between input land use data sh...