山海津米酒销量预测数据

通过销量的预测，可以帮助企业提前合理预测销量，库存应该备货多少，若库存不足，则发出预警信号，方便制定采购计划。进一步拓展农产品销售渠道，助力浙江现代化先行和共同富裕示范区建设，努力探索出一条符合上级要求、具有时代特征、彰显当地特色的乡村振兴之路。1.数据采集：采集湖州两山农品小程序的销售和订单信息以及后台库存信息。2.数据处理：对采集到的原始数据进行处理，去除缺失和异常数据。 3.数据分析：采用加权移动平均法预测销量，预测销量S=（S1*k1+S2*k2+S3*k3）/（k1+k2+k3），S1：上一个月的销量，S2：上上一个月的销量，S3：上上上一个月的销量，k1、k2、k3为权重系数，根据该类商品历史数据计算得出分别为3.1、2.4、1.1。库存健康监测P=实际库存/预计月销量，库存健康阈值Q1=1.5，Q2=3，库存预警=IFS（P＜Q1，“库存不足”，Q1≤P≤Q2，“库存健康”，“库存积压”）。4.数据应用：通过销量的预测，可以帮助企业提前合理预测销量，库存应该备货多少，若库存不足，则发出预警信号，需要及时考虑补货，若库存积压，则需要推出活动及时清理库存。

Sales forecasting can help enterprises reasonably predict sales volume in advance, determine the appropriate inventory stock level, and issue early warning signals when inventory is insufficient, so as to facilitate the formulation of procurement plans. It further expands the sales channels of agricultural products, supports the construction of Zhejiang as a modernization pilot and common prosperity demonstration zone, and strives to explore a path of rural revitalization that meets the requirements of higher authorities, bears the characteristics of the times, and highlights local features.
1. Data Collection: Collect sales, order information and background inventory data from the Huzhou Liangshan Agricultural Products Mini Program.
2. Data Processing: Process the collected raw data by removing missing and abnormal data.
3. Data Analysis: Adopt the weighted moving average method to forecast sales volume. The forecasted sales formula is $S = frac{S_1 imes k_1 + S_2 imes k_2 + S_3 imes k_3}{k_1 + k_2 + k_3}$, where $S_1$ represents the sales volume of the previous month, $S_2$ represents the sales volume of the month before last, $S_3$ represents the sales volume of two months prior, and $k_1, k_2, k_3$ are weight coefficients calculated based on the historical data of the corresponding commodity, with values of 3.1, 2.4 and 1.1 respectively. The inventory health monitoring index $P = frac{ ext{Actual Inventory}}{ ext{Projected Monthly Sales Volume}}$. The inventory health thresholds are $Q_1=1.5$ and $Q_2=3$. The inventory early warning rule is defined as $ ext{IFS}(P < Q_1, ext{"Insufficient Inventory"}, Q_1 leq P leq Q_2, ext{"Healthy Inventory"}, ext{"Overstocked Inventory"})$.
4. Data Application: Sales forecasting can help enterprises reasonably predict sales volume and determine the appropriate inventory stock level in advance. When inventory is insufficient, an early warning signal will be issued to prompt timely inventory replenishment; when inventory is overstocked, promotional activities should be launched to clear inventory in a timely manner.

搜集汇总

数据集介绍

特点

山海津米酒销量预测数据是一个包含645条记录的企业数据集，每月更新，用于通过加权移动平均法预测销量和监测库存健康，帮助企业优化库存管理和采购计划。