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Replication Data for: Leader Motivated Behavior - Voting by Mail in the 2020 General Election

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DataONE2025-07-02 更新2025-11-01 收录
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There is a large body of scholarship that probes the association of elite messaging and motivated reasoning with political behavior. Few studies, though, consider how these factors relate to validated mass behavior. Leveraging two national surveys, we assess voter alignment with President Trump and who voted by mail (VBM). Drawing on 2016 and 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES) data, we analyze the likelihood that Trump supporters: (1) voted by mail, (2) self-reported voting by mail, and (3) self-reported not voting by mail when they did (misreporting VBM). In 2016, candidate Trump spoke of a ``rigged'' election, but it was in the 2020 contest that President Trump indicted VBM as the principal reason he might lose reelection. Analyzing VBM before (2016) and during (2020) Trump's attack on this vote method suggests leader opinion activation shaped the views of Trump voters, and their actual voting behavior. In 2020, Trump supporters were markedly less likely to cast a VBM ballot and were also significantly more likely to disclaim voting by mail when they actually did. These findings have important implications regarding the extent to which purported and verified mass political behavior comports with leader-directed messaging.
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2025-10-29
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