Replication Data for: The r-g Race — Can Nominal Growth Outrun Demographic Fiscal Pressure?

Replication package for 'The r-g Race: Can Nominal Growth Outrun Demographic Fiscal Pressure?' by Brian Peters (2026). Simulates debt dynamics for 31 sovereign-rated issuers through 2050, combining income-conditioned fiscal coefficients from upstream papers in the series with forward demographic projections from the UN WPP. Computes breakeven nominal growth rates, the minimum growth needed to stabilize debt given projected demographic spending. Key finding: under income-conditioned specification, 18 of 31 countries are on explosive debt paths, stable across 2030-2050 horizons. Japan, Korea, and Italy classify as 'window' rather than 'doom loop' because OECD revenue partially offsets expenditure at high OADR levels. Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 draws) confirms point estimates: 15 of 31 countries have P(doom) > 75% at 2050. A combined portfolio of equilibrating mechanisms reduces the doom loop count to 11. The r-g race is ultimately income-conditional.