Hydroclimatic trends, ENSO teleconnection and CMIP6 projections in Imbabura Province, Ecuador (1981-2070): Data, code and manuscript files

This repository contains the data, code, manuscript and supporting materials for a hydroclimatic analysis of Imbabura Province in the northern Ecuadorian Andes, currently under peer review at an international climatology journal. Scope: Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen trend analysis of seven hydroclimatic variables (1981-2025), ENSO teleconnection (Spearman with monthly ONI, FDR-BH correction), GEV-based extreme-value analysis, CMIP6 BASD-PE projections to 2070, in-situ thermal lapse rate from 7 INAMHI stations, and CHIRPS/ERA5-Land cross-validation. Key results: 14 of 16 independent ERA5-Land grid cells covering the network show significant warming during 1981-2025 (median +0.0112 C/yr); 463 of 588 ENSO multivariable correlations remain significant after FDR-BH at q=0.05; in-situ lapse rate -8.24 C/km (R2=0.97, n=7); CMIP6 projects +1.1 to +2.1 C warming by 2041-2070. Contents: 01_manuscript_package/ - Full IJC submission package 02_data_csv/ - 71 processed CSV datasets 03_scripts_sanitised/ - 18 production scripts with portable paths 04_documentation/ - README, MANIFEST, requirements.txt, LICENSE Reproducibility: All scripts use portable paths via the IMBABURA_PROJECT_DIR environment variable. End-to-end traceability in Table S10. Data provenance: Derived from CHIRPS v2.0, ERA5-Land, TerraClimate, MOD16A2GF, ONI (NOAA), BASD-CMIP6-PE (PIK), GADM 4.1 ECU, NASADEM 30m. Original INAMHI hourly records not redistributed per institutional access conditions.