Novel application of explicit dynamics occupancy models to ongoing aquatic invasions

1. Identification of suitable habitat where invasive species can establish is an important step towards controlling their spread. Accurate identification is difficult for new or slow invaders because unoccupied habitats may be suitable given enough time for dispersal and occupied habitats may prove to be unsuitable for establishment.
2. To identify suitable habitat of a recent invader, I used an explicit dynamics occupancy modeling framework to evaluate habitat covariates related to successful and failed establishments of American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) within the Yellowstone River floodplain of Montana, USA from 2012-2016.
3. During this 5-year period, bullfrogs failed to establish at most sites they colonized. Bullfrog establishment was most likely to occur and least likely to fail at sites closest to human-modified ponds and lakes and those with emergent vegetation. These habitat covariates were generally associated with the presence of permanent water.
4. Suitable ha...