Replication package for "Crossing the Line: When Gradual State-Building Reaches a Tipping Point"

This replication package accompanies the article “Crossing the Line: When Gradual State-Building Reaches a Tipping Point” by Constantin Colonescu. The paper studies a theoretical political-economy model in which state capacity and social strength coevolve. The main research hypothesis is that a sustained state-building policy can improve institutional outcomes at low intensity but can also push the system past a finite tipping point. Beyond that threshold, the balanced state–society equilibrium disappears, and the polity moves toward state dominance under the baseline boundary rule. The welfare hypothesis is that, once the cost of sustaining policy is included, the welfare-maximizing policy lies below the tipping point. The package contains no empirical raw data. The “data” in this repository are computational outputs generated from the model’s equations and benchmark parameter values. The files reproduce the numerical material reported in the article: the ratio-map figure, the phase diagram, the bifurcation diagram, the welfare curve, and the comparative-statics table in the appendix. The computations are deterministic and are generated by Python scripts using NumPy and Matplotlib. The generated outputs show that the benchmark model has a finite tipping-point threshold for the loss of the balanced interior equilibrium. Below the threshold, a stable balanced equilibrium with positive state capacity and positive social strength exists. At the threshold, the relevant equilibrium branches meet. Above the threshold, the balanced interior equilibrium is absent in the baseline model. The welfare calculations show a concave relationship between permanent state-building intensity and long-run welfare: moderate policy improves welfare, while excessive policy intensity reduces welfare once it destroys the balanced regime. The comparative-statics calculations show how the threshold changes when attrition, contest intensity, and accumulation productivity are varied one at a time. The main variables of the model are state capacity, social strength, and the permanent state-building policy intensity. The state-collapsing threshold is the policy level at which the interior equilibrium disappears. The welfare output evaluates the selected long-run regime at each value of the state-building policy, net of the resource cost of sustaining the policy. To use the package, extract the repository folder, install the required Python dependencies listed in the README, and run the master script: python code/run_all.py This command regenerates the computational figures and numerical table in the output folders. The README identifies each figure and table, the script that produces it, and the corresponding output file. The package is intended to allow readers to reproduce the computational results reported in the article.