Groundswell Africa Spatial Population and Migration Projections at One-Eighth Degree According to SSPs and RCPs, 2010-2050

The Groundswell Africa Spatial Population and Migration Projections at One-Eighth Degree According to SSPs and RCPs, 2010-2050 data set provides a baseline population distribution for 2010 and projections from 2020 to 2050, in five-year increments, of population distribution and internal climate-related and other migration for West Africa and the Lake Victoria Basin. The projections are produced using the NCAR-CIDR Spatial Population Downscaling Model developed by the CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model incorporates assumptions based on future development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways or SSPs) and emissions trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). The SSPs include SSP2, representing a middle-of-the road future, and SSP4, representing an unequal development future. Climate models using low and high emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, then drive climate impact models on water availability, crop productivity, and pasturelands (where cropping does not occur), as well as flood impacts, from the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone are estimated to be 1 meter under RCP2.6 and 2 meters under RCP8.5, to account for potential storm surge or coastal flooding. Four scenarios are generated, a pessimistic reference scenario combining SSP4 and RCP8.5, a more climate-friendly scenario combining SSP4 and RCP2.6, a more inclusive development scenario combining SSP2 and RCP8.5, and an optimistic scenario combining SSP2 and RCP2.6. Each scenario provides an ensemble average of four model runs combining different climate impact models as well as confidence intervals to better capture uncertainties. The modeling work was funded and developed jointly with The World Bank.

《非洲大地涌动：基于共享社会经济路径（SSPs）和代表性浓度路径（RCPs）的八分之一度空间人口与迁移预测（2010-2050）》数据集，提供了2010年的基础人口分布以及从2020年至2050年，以五年为间隔的人口分布和西非及维多利亚湖盆地区内部气候相关及其他迁移预测。该预测采用由纽约市立大学人口研究学院（CIDR）和国家大气研究中心（NCAR）共同开发的NCAR-CIDR空间人口降尺度模型生成。模型基于对未来发展情景（共享社会经济路径或SSPs）和排放轨迹（代表性浓度路径或RCPs）的假设。SSPs包括代表中间道路未来的SSP2和代表不平等发展未来的SSP4。使用低和高排放情景的气候模型，即RCP2.6和RCP8.5，驱动气候影响模型，对水资源、作物产量、牧场（无耕作区域）以及洪水影响进行模拟，这些模拟基于多部门影响模型互评项目（ISIMIP）。沿海区域的 sea-level rise impact 在RCP2.6下估计为1米，在RCP8.5下估计为2米，以考虑潜在的暴潮或海岸洪水。生成了四种情景：结合SSP4和RCP8.5的悲观参考情景、结合SSP4和RCP2.6的更具气候友好型情景、结合SSP2和RCP8.5的更具包容性发展情景以及结合SSP2和RCP2.6的乐观情景。每个情景提供了四个模型运行的平均值，这些平均值结合了不同的气候影响模型，以及置信区间，以更好地捕捉不确定性。该建模工作由世界银行资助并共同开发。