Risk assessment of HPAI H5 viruses spread within French broiler and layer production networks

This repository contains data and script to assess the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses within the French broiler production networks. After drawing up a scenario tree of virus transmission from one farm to another, data were collected through a literature review or through experts’ elicitation. Three questionnaires were developed according to the experts’ field of expertise: avian influenza, broiler and layer sectors. The dataset provide the data ready for analysis and the scripts used to combined the data. The experts’ estimates were combined using a beta distribution weighted by their confidence level. A Monte Carlo iteration process was used to combine the different probabilities of the scenario tree and to assess the transmission risk.