Global Land-use Change Drives Nearly Half of Projected Diversity Shifts of Terrestrial Vertebrates

Climate change and land-use change are the two primary drivers of global biodiversity loss, while their relative contributions remain the subject of ongoing debate. Clarifying their respective roles is essential for designing effective conservation strategies aimed at protecting species from the most pressing threats in the near future. Our analysis of global biodiversity simulations indicates that nearly half of the world’s countries are projected to experience biodiversity declines by 2050 due to climate and land-use change. Global land-use change is projected to account for 48.5% of the variation in species richness, slightly less than the impact of climate change. Notably, tropical regions emerge as hotspots for future biodiversity loss. These findings highlight the urgent need to implement targeted conservation measures in priority areas to mitigate the substantial impacts of future climate and land-use changes, particularly in tropical regions.