WAMSI Node 6.1 - Offshore and coastal engineering and the effects of climate change - Sea level / storm surge model (future)

Within WAMSI Node 6.1 the probabilities of extreme sea level for the present climate have been estimated using a 60 year hindcast of sea levels.

This modelled sea level dataset has been used to map current recurrence intervals around the coastline of southwest Australia. Future changes in extreme sea levels throughout the 21st century have been estimated by increasing the current recurrence intervals by a low (18 cm) and upper (79 cm) sea-level rise projection. Results have shown that the predicted rise in sea level over the 21st century has the potential to significantly reduce current average recurrence intervals around southwest Australia and that the increase in exceedence frequency varies significantly around the coast. These estimates could increase further with enhanced storminess and this will be investigated in the next stage of the study.