Global ecosystem restoration has unexpectedly low potential to mitigate climate change

Ecosystem restoration is increasingly recognized as a tool of climate change mitigation. Former global-scale studies predicted that ecosystem restoration can nearly offset human carbon emissions since the Industrial Revolution, but these were heavily criticized for their tree-centric view of global ecosystems or questionable modeling approaches, which hinders planning large-scale, long-term, ecologically appropriate restoration strategies. Here, we developed a model for the carbon capture potential of ecosystem restoration until 2100, and show that the maximum amount is 96.9 Gt of carbon, which is 17.6% of the 640 Gt emitted since 1750, and only 3.7–12.0% if taking into account future emissions until 2100. Thus, ecosystem restoration can play a minor role in climate change mitigation even if orchestrated with a pervasive shift toward sustainable, low-emission economies globally. In addition, if restoration targets are planned to match future climatic conditions and consider state transitions of current natural ecosystems due to climate change, the mitigation potential of ecosystem restoration is close to zero. Therefore, we recommend ensuring that ecosystem restoration is pursued primarily for restoring biodiversity, supporting livelihoods, and resilience of ecosystem services (apart from carbon sequestration), as the climate mitigation potential of restoration is relatively minor and will vary depending on the actual state transitions that occur between vegetation types and feedbacks.