Relative influence of wild prey and livestock abundance on carnivore caused livestock predation

Conservation conflict over livestock depredation is one of the key drivers
of large mammalian carnivore declines worldwide. Mitigating this conflict
requires strategies informed by reliable knowledge of factors influencing
livestock depredation. Wild prey and livestock abundance are critical
factors influencing the extent of livestock depredation. We compared
whether the extent of livestock predation by snow leopards Panthera uncia
differed in relation to densities of wild prey, livestock and snow
leopards at two sites in Shey Phoksundo National Park, Nepal. We used
camera trap-based spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate
snow leopard density; double-observer surveys to estimate the density of
their main prey species, the blue sheep Pseudois nayaur; and
interview-based household surveys to estimate livestock population and
number of livestock killed by snow leopards. The proportion of livestock
lost per household was seven times higher in Upper Dolpa, the site which
had higher snow leopard density (2.51 snow leopards per 100 km2) and
higher livestock density (17.21 livestock per km2) compared to Lower Dolpa
(1.21 snow leopards per 100 km2; 4.5 livestock per km2). The wild prey
density was similar across the two sites (1.81 and 1.57 animals per km2 in
Upper and Lower Dolpa, respectively). Our results suggest that livestock
depredation level may largely be determined by the abundances of the snow
leopards and livestock and predation levels on livestock can vary even at
similar levels of wild prey density.  In large parts of the snow
leopard range, livestock production is indispensable to local livelihoods
and livestock population is expected to increase to meet the demand of
cashmere. Hence, we recommend that any efforts to increase livestock
populations or conservation initiatives aimed at recovering or increasing
snow leopard population be accompanied by better herding practices (e.g.,
predator-proof corrals) to protect livestock from snow leopard.