Household Migration Decisions and Climate Variables of Nenets Reindeer Herders in Northern Siberia (Yamal Peninsula), 2001-2022

Nenets reindeer pastoralists on the Yamal Peninsula of the Russian Arctic have demonstrated success in dealing with rapidly changing climatic conditions and the growing built environment associated with the natural gas industry. We pair our observations of a set of 28 Nenets households with hydrometeorological data to better understand the challenges of reindeer nomadism in this time of unprecedented change. We assembled a data set based on our ethnographic work with reindeer herding households beginning in 2001 through 2022, following 28 households at irregular intervals. The source of these data include surveys, participant observation, and digital communication. For this analysis we extracted information and coded variables for: reindeer herd size, migration distances, locations of summer and winter camps, annual frequency of camp movement, changes in migration patterns, and reasons for choice of migration route. These data were combined with relevant weather parameters derived from the ERA5 reanalysis data product for the immediate areas (30 kilometer (km) grid) surrounding summer and winter camps. We conducted a Bayesian logistic regression using the brms package in R Statistical Software (v4.1.2) analyzing factors contributing to ‘change’ or ‘no change’ in migration routes. Five ERA5 climate variables representing summer heating and winter warming and rain on snow (ROS) events were z-score normalized. Year of observation was treated as a factor. Posterior distribution of climate variables showed no discernable effects on household migration decisions.