Ecological niche modeling for a cultivated plant species: a case study on taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawai‘i

Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawai‘i. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawa‘i. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap usin...