Data from: Statistical comparison of trait-dependent biogeographical models indicates that Podocarpaceae dispersal is influenced by both seed cone traits and geographical distance

The ability of lineages to disperse long distances over evolutionary
timescales may be influenced by the gain or loss of traits adapted to
enhance local, ecological dispersal. For example, some species in the
southern conifer sister families Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae have
fleshy cones that encourage bird dispersal, but it is unknown how this
trait has influenced the clade’s historical biogeography, or its
importance compared to other predictors of dispersal such as the
geographic distance between regions. We answer these questions
quantitatively by using a dated phylogeny of 197 species of southern
conifers to statistically compare standard, trait-independent biogeography
models with new BioGeoBEARS models where an evolving trait can influence
dispersal probability, and trait history, biogeographical history, and
model parameters are jointly inferred. We validate the method with
simulation-inference experiments. Comparing all models, those that include
trait-dependent dispersal accrue 87.5% of the AICc model weight. Averaged
across all models, lineages with non-fleshy cones had a dispersal
probability multiplier of 0.49 compared to lineages with fleshy cones.
Distance is included as a predictor of dispersal in all credible models
(100% model weight). However, models with changing geography earned only
22.0% of the model weight, and models submerging New Caledonia/New Zealand
earned only 0.01%. The importance of traits and distance suggests that
long-distance dispersal over macroevolutionary timespans should not be
thought of as a highly unpredictable chance event. Instead, long-distance
dispersal can be modelled, allowing statistical model comparison to
quantify support for different hypotheses.