Upland Forest Birds (SECAS Goal Trends)

<p style='margin:12pt 0in 4pt;'><b>Yearly trend</b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;'>When averaged across all points with trends, upland forest bird abundance increased by 0.98% per year from 2012-2022. <span style='background-image:initial; background-position:initial; background-size:initial; background-repeat:initial; background-attachment:initial; background-origin:initial; background-clip:initial;'>Species used were cerulean warbler, Louisiana waterthrush, wood thrush, and worm-eating warbler. These species are</span> Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need for states in the Southeast, primarily occur in this ecosystem, and have sufficient data for trend analysis in eBird Status and Trends. Trends varied across the Southeast, with the biggest declines occurring in the Central Hardwoods, Appalachians, and northeast part of the Southeast Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Regions. For two widespread species, points were mostly increasing: wood thrush (91% increasing) and Louisiana waterthrush (64% increasing). For two species with smaller ranges in the Southeast, points were mostly declining: cerulean warbler (78% declining) and worm-eating warbler (78% declining). Breeding Bird Survey trends, which cover more coarse areas, also show similar patterns.</p>
<p style='margin:12pt 0in 4pt;'><b>On track to meet SECAS goal</b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;'>Yes. The increase of about 3.92% every 4 years is greater than the SECAS goal of a 1% increase every 4 years.</p>
<p style='margin:12pt 0in 4pt;'><b>Data source</b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;'><a href='https://science.ebird.org/en/status-and-trends' target='_blank' rel='nofollow ugc noopener noreferrer'><span style='background-image:initial; background-position:initial; background-size:initial; background-repeat:initial; background-attachment:initial; background-origin:initial; background-clip:initial;'>eBird Status and Trends</span></a><span style='background-image:initial; background-position:initial; background-size:initial; background-repeat:initial; background-attachment:initial; background-origin:initial; background-clip:initial;'> </span></p>
<p style='margin:12pt 0in 4pt;'><b>Confidence in trend</b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;'>Low. Less than half of the points that were increasing (38%) were statistically significant.</p>
<p style='margin:12pt 0in 4pt;'><b>Interpretation</b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;'>This is an indicator of both local and landscape conditions across the upland forest ecosystem. Upland hardwood birds benefit from conversion of historic grassland and savanna ecosystems into closed canopy forest. In areas with increases, that may mean increases in closed canopy forest overall are offsetting the negative impacts of land use changes like greater forest fragmentation. Some areas of upland forest bird decline, like Southeast Missouri, could actually be positive signs of conservation overall as these areas are restored to the more open forest types that historically occurred there.</p>
<p style='margin:0in;'> </p>
<p style='margin:0in;'>Species-specific trends also highlight how more widespread generalist species (Louisiana waterthrush, wood thrush) seem to be poised to take advantage of changing landscape conditions. More specialist and range-limited species (cerulean warbler, worm-eating warbler) seem to be less able to take advantage of these changes. Based on range-wide trends for these species, it doesn’t appear that climate change is a major driver of trends during this time period. It’s also important to note that all these species are neotropical migrants. Threats to survival during migration (e.g., communication towers) and on their wintering grounds (e.g., habitat loss) are likely also impacting population trends.</p>
<p style='margin:12pt 0in 4pt;'><b>Other information available</b></p>
<p style='margin:0in;'><span style='background-image:initial; background-position:initial; background-size:initial; background-repeat:initial; background-attachment:initial; background-origin:initial; background-clip:initial;'>A table of state-level summaries for each species, a map by Bird Conservation Region (BCR), and tabular data associated with the chart above are available in Appendix I</span> of the pdf report: <a href='https://secassoutheast.org/pdf/SECAS-goal-report-2024.pdf' target='_blank' rel='nofollow ugc noopener noreferrer'>https://secassoutheast.org/pdf/SECAS-goal-report-2024.pdf</a>.</p>