Data from: Are replication rates the same across academic fields? community forecasts from the DARPA SCORE program

The DARPA program “Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence”
(SCORE) aims to generate confidence scores for a large number of research
claims from empirical studies in the social and behavioral sciences. The
confidence scores will provide a quantitative assessment of how likely a
claim will hold up in an independent replication. To create the scores we
follow earlier approaches and use prediction markets and surveys to
forecast replication outcomes. Based on an initial set of forecasts for
the overall replication rate in SCORE and its dependence on the academic
discipline and the time of publication, we show that participants expect
replication rates to increase over time. Moreover, they expect replication
rates to differ between fields, with the highest replication rate in
economics (average survey response 58%), and the lowest in Psychology and
in Education (average survey response of 42% for both fields). These
results reveal insights into the academic community’s views of the
replication crisis, including for research fields for which no large-scale
replication studies have been undertaken yet.