Report on the impact of 21st century climate change on social-ecological systems at Greenland’s marine margins

A multidisciplinary team spent a year examining how climate change will impact socio-ecological systems at Greenland’s changing coastal margins. The research focused on two glacial fjord/ecosystem/community systems: one in Northwest Greenland near the community of Qaanaaq, the Qaanaaq region; and the other in Southeast Greenland near the community of Tasiilaq, the Ammassalik region. These two regions encompass a range of geographic, climatic, historical, and social settings across Greenland. This report summarizes the findings from an initial analysis. It includes an analysis of historical data to identify periods of past climate over the previous 100 years that resemble the warmer conditions observed today. It includes an analysis of climate projections to determine if and when the climate around coastal Greenland will exceed the variability experienced over the last 100 years. This report concerns first the physical and ecological system, considering both observed changes in the past and projected changes in the future. We consider and discuss in turn the following components of the physical and ecological system: (i) atmosphere, (ii) ocean, (iii) sea ice, (iv) ice sheet and glaciers, (v) primary productivity and chlorophyll, (vi) fisheries and (vii) marine mammals/polar bears. A discussion then brings together the described climate and ecological variability and considers future directions.