Spatiotemporal coupling and coordination of ecosystem services and water-energy-food system security in Xinjiang

Water, energy, and food are the basic resources supporting the socioeconomic development of arid zones, whereas ecosystem services are important for maintaining the sustainable supply of resources. Exploring the relationship between ecosystem services and the security of water-energy-food (WEF) systems in arid and semi-arid zones is of great significance for maintaining the health of ecosystems, sustainable utilization of resources, and high-quality development of the region. Based on land use, water consumption, and socioeconomic data in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2023, we applied InVEST, real-code accelerated genetic projection tracing, and coupling coordination degree models to measure the ecosystem services and WEF system security, analyze the coupling coordination degree of these variables, and explore the interaction mechanism between the systems using a geo-probe. The overall ecosystem services in Xinjiang were stable during the study period. However, obvious spatial differentiation characteristics were observed for ecosystem services, tending to spread from the oasis area to the surroundings. Water production first increased, decreased, and then increased again. The quality of the habitats was basically stable. Carbon storage slowly increased, whereas soil retention exhibited a fluctuating and decreasing trend. The overall security of the WEF system in the study area is increasing, gradually improving from an unsafe state to a basically safe state, being high in the north and low in the south, with the core area expanding in succession. The coupling and coordination degree of ecosystem services and WEF system security were high in the north and low in the south. The degree of coupling coordination has increased from mildly disordered to marginally coordinated, and the average annual growth rate has gradually slowed. The lack of water resources and spatial mismatch have exacerbated the structural contradiction in the synergistic development of the system, and there is an urgent need to solve the bottleneck of development by improving the efficiency of resource utilization. A significant interactive relationship exists between ecosystem services and WEF system security. Watershed and precipitation are the key factors of ecosystem services affecting WEF system security, and water resources utilization and food production are important factors of WEF system security affecting ecosystem services.