International trade, labor allocation and the issue of deindustrialization in Brazil: an approach using computable general equilibrium

The present study aims to evaluate the impacts on the allocation of formal employment of labor factor in Brazil and verify evidence of deindustrialization, when a deepening of international trade occurs. The instrument used for the simulations of the scenarios, the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), is a model of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE). The results, combined with data from RAIS (Annual Report of Social Information), indicated evidences of deindustrialization, due to the fall of employment in the Brazilian manufacturing industry, mainly in the average level of qualification. Preferential trade agreements with Asia and with the European Union would be the ones that would most contribute to it. However, there would be gains in welfare due to better allocation of productive resources and terms of trade.