Impacts of circular economy policies on global primary indium demand and supply for the photovoltaic industry and countermeasures suggested for China

Global indium reserves saw a significant decrease over the past twenty years, while China’s dominance in global indium supply chains is also being challenged. Meanwhile, solar PV and other emerging industries are driving the increase in indium demand. Based on the IEA Sustainable Development scenario, the changes in primary indium demand and supply for the global solar PV industry between 2020 and 2050 was estimated under 12 circular economy scenarios using dynamic material flow analysis and scenario analysis. Taking the China Geological Survey 2022 Data, the primary indium demand and supply for the global solar PV industry by 2050 were estimated. The countermeasures suggested for China as: (i) China should emphasize the importance of indium as a strategic mineral, increase the resource efficiency of its utilization and build international partnerships for securing its supply security; (ii) when formulating circular economy polices for solar PV equipment, the coordination and conflict between individual circular economy strategies should be considered carefully, green design and end-of-life management should be integrated; (iii) incentivize Chinese solar PV enterprises to adopt “extended producer responsibility” practices at home and abroad, and actively promote the construction and governance of a circular solar PV supply chain globally.