2014 round population projections

IMPORTANT NOTE: These projections have been superceded, please see https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ for the latest GLA projections.   Four variants of local authority level population projections and one ward-level projection are available: • Trend-based projections based on short-term (five year) trends in migration • Trend-based projections based on long-term (twelve year) trends in migration • Housing-linked projections incorporating data from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA), short term migration trends and using the Capped Household Size projection model • Housing-linked projections incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA, long-term migration trends and using the DCLG-linked projection model • Ward projections consistent with the SHLAA Capped Household Size model.  A visualisation of these projections can be viewed here . A note outlining the key differences between the various projection methodologies can be found here . The GLA's 2014 round of projections is its first to fully incorporate the results of the 2011 Census, with underlying migration data updated using commissioned origin-destination tables. Notes: • The short-term migration scenario bases the volume of migration flows on estimates for the period mid-2009 to mid-2013. Age and sex characteristics for domestic flows are based on origin-destination data from the 2011 Census. These projections are intended to be used where accuracy in the near term is important. • The long-term migration scenario bases the volume of migration flows on estimates for the period mid-2001 to mid-2013. Age and sex characteristics of domestic flows are based on a combination of origin-destination data from both 2001 and 2011 Censuses. These projections are intended to be used for longer-term strategic planning purposes. Household projections consistent with these projections are available here . The custom-age population tool page is here . *updated 14/04/2015 to correct minor errors in the 2012 and 2013 birth and death inputs

重要提示：本报告中的预测数据已过时，请查阅 https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ 获取最新的大伦敦管理局（GLA）预测数据。本数据集包含四种地方政府层级人口预测及一种区域层级预测：
• 基于短期（五年）移民趋势的趋势性预测
• 基于长期（十二年）移民趋势的趋势性预测
• 结合2013年战略住房土地可用性评估（SHLAA）数据、短期移民趋势以及使用上限家庭规模预测模型的住房关联预测
• 结合2013年SHLAA数据、长期移民趋势以及使用DCLG关联预测模型的住房关联预测
• 与SHLAA上限家庭规模模型一致的区域预测。相关预测的可视化结果可在此查看。不同预测方法之间的关键差异概述可在此查阅。大伦敦管理局2014年的预测是其首次完全纳入2011年人口普查结果，并使用委托的来源-目的表格更新了基础移民数据。注记：
• 短期移民情景基于2009年中期至2013年中期的移民流量估计。国内流量的年龄和性别特征基于2011年人口普查的来源-目的数据。这些预测适用于近期精度要求较高的场合。
• 长期移民情景基于2001年中期至2013年中期的移民流量估计。国内流量的年龄和性别特征基于2001年和2011年人口普查的来源-目的数据的组合。这些预测适用于长期战略规划目的。与这些预测一致的住房预测数据可在此查阅。定制年龄人口工具页面在此。
*更新于2015年4月14日，以纠正2012年和2013年出生与死亡输入中的微小错误。