Data and Code for: "More than Words: Leaders’ Speech and Risky Behavior During a Pandemic"

This paper investigates whether the anti-scientific rhetoric of modern populists can induce followers to engage in risky behavior. We gather electoral information, credit card expenses, and geo-localized mobile phone data for approximately 60 million devices in Brazil. After the president publicly dismissed the risks of the COVID-19 pandemic and challenged scientific recommendations, social distancing in pro-government localities declined. Consistently, credit card expenses increased immediately. Results are driven by localities with higher media penetration levels, active Twitter accounts, and a larger proportion of Evangelical Christians, a critical electoral group.

本研究探讨现代民粹主义者反科学的修辞是否能够诱导追随者从事风险行为。我们收集了巴西约6000万设备的选举信息、信用卡消费和地理定位的移动电话数据。在总统公开淡化COVID-19大流行病的风险并挑战科学建议之后，亲政府地区的社交距离措施随即下降。与之一致的是，信用卡消费随即增加。结果表明，媒体渗透率较高、活跃的Twitter账户数量较多以及福音派基督徒比例较大的地区，其影响尤为显著，福音派基督徒是关键选民群体。