Datasets and Code for the Concurrent Extremes of Drought and Exchange Rate Scissors: Re-evaluating Virtual Water Flows under Non-Linear Shocks

This replication package contains the datasets and dual-language processing scripts used to analyze the interaction between climate shocks and exchange rate volatility in Morocco and Türkiye (2010-2024).<br><b><br>Datasets Included:</b><b>Trade Volume Series:</b> Monthly export volumes (kg) at the HS 6-digit level. Sourced from ITC Trade Map with hierarchical gap-filling via mirror statistics for minor categories.<b>Geospatial Climate Data:</b> GeoJSON coordinates for national production clusters and high-resolution (up to 30m) water productivity and SPI series. Data were extracted via TerraClimate, NASA AppEEARS, and FAO WaPOR v3, and spatially masked to isolate the specific climatic conditions of Morocco and Türkiye's agricultural regions.<b>Virtual Water Exports Index:</b> A derived longitudinal series constructed by integrating crop-specific water requirements with monthly export volumes. This index quantifies the Blue and Green water footprints embedded in agricultural exports<b>Macroeconomic Variables:</b> Monthly REER (Bruegel) and interpolated RGDP of partner countries (World Bank).<b>Code Repository:</b><b>Python Scripts:</b> Contains the Gravity Model implementation using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. Includes scripts for data cleaning and early-stage diagnostics.<b>R Scripts:</b> Dedicated to Panel Granger Causality tests. Includes panel stationarity diagnostics (IPS tests).