Risk Calculator for Youth Violence

Risk Calculator designed to aid in identifying at-risk individuals who are at an increased risk of first-time violence between the ages of 10 and 16 within the context of England. The calculator is built using a cohort of individuals captured in a routinely collected police data set. The cohort consists of all individuals aged 16 by the date of 25th March 2021. The data has been modelled using a two-way interaction multivariate logistic regressions. This modelling technique was chosen out of a range of options including Cox Proportional Hazards, Exponential, Weibull, Lognormal and Loglogistic AFTs. The rationale for this modelling choice was the magnitude of the AIC (lower) than all other models tested. The calculator is designed to aid users in identifying young people who are at an elevated risk of first-time violence. The calculator is not definite in that an individual scoring a higher probability will not necessarily always go on to violently offend, simply that they are at an increased risk of doing so. That is to say that the calculator must not be used as a tool to label and then follow specific individuals.