The relationship between sportsbook point spread and true margin of victory.

Regular season matches from the National Football League occurring between 2002-2022 were stratified according to their sportsbook point spread. Each set of 3 grouped rows corresponds to a subsample of matches with a common sportsbook point spread. The “level” column indicates whether the row pertains to the 95% confidence interval (0.025 and 0.975 quantiles) or the mean value across bootstrap resamples. The dependent variables include the 0.476, 0.5, and 0.524 quantiles, as well as the expected profit of wagering on the side with higher likelihood of winning the bet for hypothetical point spreads that deviate from the median outcome by 1, 2, and 3 points, respectively.