From hot to cold spots: climate change will change endemism centers of small mammals in a biodiversity hotspot

Climate change represents one of the main current threats to biodiversity. Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are expected to induce species range shifts and alter diversity and distribution patterns in the Atlantic forest. In this paper, we evaluate if protected areas and forest remnants will ensure the richness and the phylogenetic diversity of small mammals under scenarios of future climate change. Species distribution models were used to assess the potential distribution of small mammals using baseline and future (2050 and 2070) in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Our results show that changes in temperature and precipitation regimes will lead to a strong reduction in the suitable climatic areas for small mammals in the Atlantic Forest. The shrinkage in the potential distribution will lead to a high loss of richness and phylogenetic diversity in several regions of the Atlantic Forest. Many of the regions projected to lose richness and phylogenetic endemism are located within key endemism centers, highlighting that these areas need further attention. On the other hand, some regions in the north of the Atlantic Forest are projected to gain phylogenetic diversity in the future, most of these areas are located in areas with few forest remnants and in spatially isolated protected areas. These areas can be used as a refuge for small mammals in the future, and are fundamental for conservation, as they highlight regions that will hold high evolutionary heritage in the future.