Procedure for the statistical correction of medium-range spectral forecasts

"It has long been recognized that statistical adjustments applied to the output of dynamically produced numerical progs can systematically reduce their errors. The success of MOS (Glahn and Lowry, 1972; Glahn, 1980) is partially due to this, although MOS has traditionally been applied to the specification of events not explicitly treated in the forecast model, and our interest here is in the height and temperature fields (or other predicted variables) that are specifically forecast by the model. Hughes (1982) has been using, successfully, a statistical correction procedure to improve 6-10 day forecasts of the height field. Our intent is to try to improve on Hughes' results by employing a somewhat more systematic developmental approach, and especially by applying the statistical corrections in the spectral domain of the model rather than in the spatial domain of the output"--Introduction, paragraph 1. Edward S. Epstein. "January 1985." "This is an unreviewed manuscript, primarily intended for informal exchange of information among NMC staff members." System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Includes bibliographical references (page 7).