National estimates of U.S. storm surge extremes and underlying long-term trends (1950-2020) using spatiotemporal non-stationary Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling

These fully observation-based estimates have been produced by modeling storm surge extremes from tide gauge data using a non-stationary spatio-temporal Bayesian Hierachial Model (BHM) (available from https://zenodo.org/records/10967174)

The dataset contains a summary of estimates, including:

Posterior median estimates of skew surge return levels (m) and associated credible interval (CI) values for 208 tide gauge locations

Posterior-median estimates of skew surge return levels (m) and associated credible interval (CI) values for the entire U.S. coastlines

Posterior-median estimates of GEV parameters (shape, scale and location) and associated credible interval (CI) values for 208 tide gauge.

Posterior-median estimates of GEV parameters (shape, scale and location) and associated credible interval (CI) values for the entire U.S. coastlines

       and

Posterior-median estimates of trends in skew surge extremes (mm/year) along U.S. coastlines over three different historical periods (1950-2020, 1975-2020 and 1950-1975) and their probability (P) of existing in the direction of the posterior-median sign (P ranges from 0 to 100%)

The dataset also provides:

Posterior-median estimates of skew surge return levels (m) and associated credible interval (CI) values for 208 tide guage locations using a traditional single-site GEV model based on Bayesian Inference.

NOTE: all data and associated published articles require proper acknowlement, citation and referencing when directly or indirectly using any archived file listed above.

Associated publications:

1. Joao Morim, D.J. Rasmussen, Thomas Wahl, et al. Observation-based probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge and sea level extremes for the United States, 24 February 2025, PREPRINT (Version 1) available at Research Square. (under review)

2. Joao Morim, Thomas Wahl, D.J. Rasmussen et al. Observations reveal changing coastal storms around the United States, 25 November 2024, PREPRINT (Version 1) available at Research Square. (under review)

Associated data:

1. Morim, J. (2024). National estimates of U.S. storm surge extremes and underlying long-term trends (1950-2020) using spatiotemporal non-stationary Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10944076

Associated model:

1. Calafat, F. M. (2024). BAYEX: Spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extremes with max-stable processes (v3.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10967174