Impact and countermeasures of climate change on grain production in Northwest China

Global climate change is reshaping the agricultural production patterns of grain crops in Northwest China. As an important reserve region for national grain production, Northwest China faces multiple uncertainties and compound risks in food security. This study analyzes the current status and limiting factors of grain production, along with regional climate change trends, and systematically evaluates the impacts of climate change and its associated disasters on the spatial distribution, cropping systems, and yield formation of major crops such as wheat, maize, and potato. Over the past 60 years, the region has experienced a warming rate of approximately 0.32℃ per decade and a precipitation increase of about 9.32 mm per decade, accompanied by a significant rise in the frequency of extreme events. The regional climate is characterized by pronounced warming, uneven precipitation changes, increased evaporative demand, and more frequent extremes, leading to both beneficial and adverse effects on agricultural production. On the one hand, rising temperatures and increased precipitation have extended the growing season, promoting the northward and westward expansion of winter wheat and the extension of maize cultivation into higher latitudes and elevations, with potential yield increases in some areas. On the other hand, the increasing occurrence of extreme heat and drought intensifies crop water deficits, while compound events such as drought, heat stress, and abrupt drought-flood transitions can reduce yields by 10%–30%, posing significant risks to production stability. Climate change influences the stability of grain production in Northwest China by altering hydrothermal conditions, increasing the risk of extreme events, and driving adjustments in cropping systems. To enhance agricultural resilience, several adaptation strategies are proposed. (1) Advancing climate-smart agriculture, optimizing agricultural production layouts and technical systems, and enhancing the resilience of agricultural production; (2) establishing an integrated “space–air–ground” agricultural meteorological monitoring and early warning system to improve disaster prevention and control capabilities; and (3) implementing the “Defining the Scales Based on Water” policy under water resource constraints and institutional safeguards to promote efficient water-saving agriculture. These findings provide a scientific basis and decision-support reference for climate change adaptation and national food security strategies in Northwest China.