Early and regional model performance for the Michigan flood of September 9-12, 1986 - A quick look

One of the worst floods in recorded Michigan history occurred from rains which fell during the period from Tuesday, September 9, through Friday, September 12, 1986. The preliminary storm total rainfall is shown in Fig. 1. Amounts exceeding 12 inches were reported in an east-west band across central lower Michigan from east of Muskegon to east of Saginaw. Amounts approaching 14 inches occurred in the southwest part of the area enclosed by the 12-inch isohyet. This technical attachment is meant to be only a once-over-lightly look at the quality of the model (Early and Regional) guidance for the most intense segment of the rainfall. To treat the whole storm thoroughly would require more charts and data than are immediately available to the SSD and the end product would be too bulky to use as a technical attachment.