Conservation planning for retention, not just protection

Most protected area (PA) planning aims to improve biota representation within the PA system, but this does not necessarily achieve the best outcomes for biota retention across regions when we also consider habitat loss in areas outside the PA system. Here we assess the implications that different PA expansion strategies can have on the retention of species habitat across an entire region. Using retention of forest habitat for Colombia’s 550 forest-dependent bird species as our outcome variable, we found that when a minimum of 30% of each species’ habitat was included in the PA system, a pattern of PA expansion targeting areas at highest deforestation risk (risk-prevention) led to the retention, on average, of 7.2% more forest habitat per species by 2050 than did a pattern that targeted areas at lowest risk (risk-avoidance). The risk-prevention approach cost more per km² of land conserved, but i2Deforestation Probability Rastert was more cost-effective in retaining habitat in the landscape (50 – 69% lower cost per km2 of avoided deforestation). To have the same effectiveness preventing habitat loss in Colombia, the risk-avoidance approach would require more than twice as much protected area, costing three times more in the process. PA expansion should focus on the contributions of PAs to outcomes not only within PA systems themselves, but across entire regions.

Although including these maps in the repository contravenes the terms of use under which they were shared by BirdLife International, we are including them to meet the requirements of Global Change Biology and to allow our analyses to be replicated. However, BirdLife International strongly suggest that users request the most up to date versions of the maps at https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/requestdis”

Files in the repository- Shapefile of the 550 forest depenedent bird species in Colombia - File name: "Colombia_Forest_Birds.shp"

- Raster file of the deforestation probability for the forest in Colombia used for the deforestation models and the Marxan runs - Folder name: "Deforestation Probability Raster"

- Marxan Outputs based on the different approaches and targets - Folder name: "Marxan Outputs"

- Raster layers of historical, 2015 and different projections for 2050 of forest cover - Folder Name: "Forest Cover Colombia" 

- Oportunity Cost of Conservation raster layers for a 5%,10% and 20% discount rate - Folder name: "OCC"

- Table with the results of habitat los by species by 2050 under the different approaches and scenarios - Folder name: "Species Results by Scenario and Target"