Trends in decision-making by primary care physicians regarding common infectious complaints

Primary care physicians played an important role in the global response during the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the absence of laboratory and diagnostics services, the move to telehealth and the focus on respiratory assessment, they faced increased uncertainty when making clinical decisions. This paper aims to examine the impact of the pandemic on decisions made by primary care physicians, as measured by referrals to chest X-ray and laboratory tests and by prescriptions of antibiotics. We conducted a retrospective study of all visits recorded with fever or cough, presenting to 209 community clinics in Southern Israel during the years 2018–2022. We describe changes in outcome rates across time and use multivariate generalised linear mixed effects model to compare the odds of referrals and prescriptions between periods, while accounting for gender, age, clinic sector, visit type, diagnosis, and season. In total, 609,823 visits to primary care physicians complied with the cohort definitions. Social restrictions were associated with a decline in all measured outcomes for primary care physician decisions, most prominently among ages 20-59, for throat culture referral during the first lockdown (OR = 0.46) and for cephalosporine prescription during the second lockdown (OR = 0.55). This trend persisted following the cancellation of the restrictions. Despite higher uncertainty during the COVID-19 social restrictions, the overall course of clinical decision-making processes was maintained, and was associated with a reduction in the use of auxiliary resources, which can improve the quality of patient care by lowering costs and supporting prevention of future antibiotics resistance.