Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes

Aim: The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained
as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread
rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the
consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated
whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the
relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the
grey wolf (Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and the brown bear
(Ursus arctos). Location: Europe, west of 64° longitude. Methods: We
fitted multi-temporal species distribution models using >50,000
occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration,
protected areas, hunting regulations, and human population density
covering a 24-year period (1992-2015). Within the temporal window
considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large
carnivores throughout Europe. Results: Between 1992 and 2015, the habitat
suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the
Balkans, North-West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed
mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. These trends were primarily
associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human
population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of
mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation. Main Conclusions: Recent land
cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat
suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection
level did not play a role. While projected changes largely match the
observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with
the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where
factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. This
suggests that large carnivores’ co-existence with humans in European
landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such
as favorable human tolerance and policy.