NOAA Operational Forecast System (OFS)

ANNOUNCEMENTS: [NOS OFS Version Updates and Implementation of Upgraded Oceanographic Forecast Modeling Systems for Lakes Superior and Ontario; Effective October 25, 2022}(<a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-91_nos_loofs_lsofs_v3.pdf">https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-91_nos_loofs_lsofs_v3.pdf</a>) <br/> <br/> For decades, mariners in the United States have depended on NOAA&#39;s Tide Tables for the best estimate of expected water levels. These tables provide accurate predictions of the astronomical tide (i.e., the change in water level due to the gravitational effects of the moon and sun and the rotation of the Earth); however, they cannot predict water-level changes due to wind, atmospheric pressure, and river flow, which are often significant. <br/> <br/> The National Ocean Service (NOS) has the mission and mandate to provide guidance and information to support navigation and coastal needs. To support this mission, NOS has been developing and implementing hydrodynamic model-based <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/forecast_info.html">Operational Forecast Systems</a>. <br/> <br/> This forecast guidance provides oceanographic information that helps mariners safely navigate their local waters. This national network of hydrodynamic models provides users with operational nowcast and forecast guidance (out to 48 – 120 hours) on parameters such as water levels, water temperature, salinity, and currents. These forecast systems are implemented in critical ports, harbors, estuaries, Great Lakes and coastal waters of the United States, and form a national backbone of real-time data, tidal predictions, data management and operational modeling. <br/> <br/> Nowcasts and forecasts are scientific predictions about the present and future states of water levels (and possibly currents and other relevant oceanographic variables, such as salinity and temperature) in a coastal area. These predictions rely on either observed data or forecasts from a numerical model. A nowcast incorporates recent (and often near real-time) observed meteorological, oceanographic, and/or river flow rate data. A nowcast covers the period from the recent past (e.g., the past few days) to the present, and it can make predictions for locations where observational data are not available. A forecast incorporates meteorological, oceanographic, and/or river flow rate forecasts and makes predictions for times where observational data will not be available. A forecast is usually initiated by the results of a nowcast. <br/> <br/> OFS generally runs four times per day (every 6 hours) on NOAA&#39;s Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing Systems (WCOSS) in a standard Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) developed by the <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/">Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS)</a>. COMF is a set of standards and tools for developing and maintaining NOS’s hydrodynamic model–based operational forecast systems. The goal of COMF is to provide a standard and comprehensive software infrastructure to enhance ease of use, performance, portability, and interoperability of NOS’s operational forecast systems. <br/> <br/>

公告：[诺斯克湖和安大略湖海洋预报建模系统版本更新及升级实施；自2022年10月25日起生效](https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-91_nos_loofs_lsofs_v3.pdf) <br/> <br/> 数十年来，美国的水手们一直依赖美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的潮汐表以获取预期水位的最精确估计。这些表格提供了天文潮汐（即由于月球和太阳的引力作用以及地球自转引起的水位变化）的准确预测；然而，它们无法预测由于风、大气压力和河流流量引起的水位变化，这些因素往往非常显著。 <br/> <br/> 国家海洋服务局（NOS）的使命和职责是提供指导和信息，以支持航海和沿海需求。为了支持这一使命，NOS一直在开发和实施基于水动力学模型<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/forecast_info.html">运行预报系统</a>。 <br/> <br/> 此预报指南提供了海洋信息，帮助水手安全地航行其本地水域。这一国家性的水动力学模型网络为用户提供操作性的实时预报和预测指导（最长可达48至120小时），包括水位、水温、盐度和水流等参数。这些预报系统在美国的关键港口、港湾、河口、五大湖和沿海水域得到实施，构成了一个全国性的实时数据、潮汐预测、数据管理和操作建模的国家骨干网络。 <br/> <br/> 实时预报和预测是对沿海区域水位（以及可能的水流和其他相关海洋变量，如盐度和温度）的当前和未来状态的科学预测。这些预测依赖于观测数据或数值模型的预报。实时预报整合了最近的（通常是接近实时）观测的气象、海洋和/或河流流量数据。实时预报涵盖了从最近过去（例如，过去几天）到现在的时期，并且可以对观测数据不可用的地点进行预测。预报整合了气象、海洋和/或河流流量预报，并对观测数据将不可用的时段进行预测。预报通常由实时预报的结果启动。 <br/> <br/> 操作性预报系统（OFS）通常每天运行四次（每6小时一次），在NOAA的气象和气候操作超级计算系统（WCOSS）上，在由<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/">操作海洋产品和服务中心（CO-OPS）</a>开发的标准化沿海海洋建模框架（COMF）中进行。COMF是一套用于开发和维护NOS基于水动力学模型的操作预报系统的标准和工具。COMF的目标是提供一个标准且全面的软件基础设施，以增强NOS操作预报系统的易用性、性能、可移植性和互操作性。 <br/> <br/>