Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations - IPCC

The representative characteristics of the simulated 20th century North Hemisphere sea ice by the CMIP5 models have been evaluated against available observations and compared with those by the CMIP3 models. In addition to the analysis of conventional parameters, such as climatological mean and seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), a transient sensitivity analysis of summer SIA to the changes in Arctic regionally averaged melting season surface air temperatures (SAT) was conducted to better understand physics behind model uncertainties (e.g., Gregory et al. 2004; Zhang 2010).研究针对现有观测数据，评估了耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）模式所模拟的20世纪北半球海冰典型特征，并将其模拟结果与耦合模式比较计划第三阶段（CMIP3）模式的结果进行了对比。除针对海冰面积（Sea Ice Area, SIA）的气候平均态与季节循环等常规参数开展分析外，本研究还针对夏季海冰面积对北极区域平均融化季地面气温（Surface Air Temperatures, SAT）的变化开展了瞬态敏感性分析，以更好地阐明模式不确定性背后的物理机制（如Gregory等，2004；Zhang，2010）。