Study on trends and forecasts of changes in the disease burden of two types of viral hepatitis transmitted through the digestive tract in China, 1990-2021

Objective To analyze the burden and development trend of viral hepatitis A (HA) and E (HE) in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide reference data for the effective prevention and control of HA and HE in China.Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database, we descriptively analyzed the trends in incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for HA and HE in China from 1990 to 2021, and used the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percentage change of burden of disease indicators, and the incidence rates of HA and HE in China from 2022 to 2030 were predicted using the ARIMA model.Results Compared with 1990, the number of incidences, deaths, DALYs, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life yearly rate (ASDR) of HA and HE in China in 2021 were significantly lower, and the disease burden indicators of both hepatitis showed a decreasing trend in both male and female groups, but the average annual standardized rate of each indicator was higher for males than for females. The ASMR and ASDR of HA and HE showed a decreasing trend in all age groups in China from 1990 to 2021, but the ASIR showed an increasing trend in some age groups, with HA being the population aged 20-34 years and ≥60 years, and HE being the population aged 0-4 years and ≥55 years. The prediction results of the ARIMA model showed a decreasing trend of the incidence rate of HA in China from 2022 to 2030, while the opposite was true for HE, which was predicted to be 1810.33/100,000 and 378.56/100,000 by 2030, respectively.Conclusion The overall burden of disease for both HA and HE in China showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2021, and projections found that the incidence of HA continued to decline while HE showed an increasing trend from 2022 to 2030, suggesting that the relevant authorities should pay more attention and concern to HE and take targeted preventive measures in order to respond positively to the elimination action plan planned by the World Health Organization.