Trade-offs between solar PV development and food production under cropland encroachment in China

The rapid expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity has created increasing competition between renewable energy development and cropland, raising concerns about food security. China hosts more than one-third of global PV capacity, but faces substantial challenges due to its limited cropland per capita and large population. However, how PV encroachment on cropland impacts food production in China have not been well explored yet. Here, we integrate nationwide remote sensing datasets of PV installations and crop distribution to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of PV expansion on cropland from 2014 to 2021. We further estimate production losses of rice, wheat, and maize using a shading-based model and assess policy impacts through structural break detection and Difference-in-Differences analysis. The resultes showed that PV expansion on cropland increased rapidly prior to 2017 but slowed markedly thereafter, with annual growth rates declining to below 10%, largely associated with strengthened policies. Despite substantial spatial heterogeneity across provinces, the overall national impact on staple crop production remains small, accounting for less than 0.1% of total output. However, scenario projections indicate that continued expansion onto cropland could pose increasing risks to food security without effective policy constraints. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the magnitude, spatial heterogeneity, and policy drivers of PV development and food production trade-offs in China, informing sustainable land use planning under the dual goals of decarbonization and food security.The rapid expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity has created increasing competition between renewable energy development and cropland, raising concerns about food security. China hosts more than one-third of global PV capacity, but faces substantial challenges due to its limited cropland per capita and large population. However, how PV encroachment on cropland impacts food production in China have not been well explored yet. Here, we integrate nationwide remote sensing datasets of PV installations and crop distribution to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of PV expansion on cropland from 2014 to 2021. We further estimate production losses of rice, wheat, and maize using a shading-based model and assess policy impacts through structural break detection and Difference-in-Differences analysis. The resultes showed that PV expansion on cropland increased rapidly prior to 2017 but slowed markedly thereafter, with annual growth rates declining to below 10%, largely associated with strengthened policies. Despite substantial spatial heterogeneity across provinces, the overall national impact on staple crop production remains small, accounting for less than 0.1% of total output. However, scenario projections indicate that continued expansion onto cropland could pose increasing risks to food security without effective policy constraints. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the magnitude, spatial heterogeneity, and policy drivers of PV development and food production trade-offs in China, informing sustainable land use planning under the dual goals of decarbonization and food security.